What does impact bias refer to?

Impact bias refers to the tendency individuals have to predict that their emotional responses to future events will be more intense than they actually turn out to be. This means people often overestimate the strength and duration of their emotional reactions to both positive and negative events. For example, someone might believe that winning a competition will bring them lifelong happiness, but when the event occurs, the emotional high may not be as significant or lasting as anticipated, leading to a sense of surprise or discontent.

This phenomenon is important in understanding human behavior because it can influence decision-making and expectations, often leading individuals to pursue certain goals or make choices based on the assumption that they will feel more intense emotions than they ultimately do. Recognizing impact bias can help individuals adjust their expectations and make more informed decisions based on a more accurate understanding of their emotional responses.